Agentic Commerce Will Scale Several Times Faster Than E-Commerce — The Era Where "Fastest Learners" Win

"Fastest Learners" Win, Not the "Biggest Retailers"

Agentic commerce will reward the fastest learners, not the biggest retailers | Fortune

Agentic commerce could reach scale far faster than e-commerce ever did — and digital markets rarely reward late movers.

On February 10, 2026, a contribution from Publicis Sapient Managing Director Simon James published in Fortune is making waves in the industry. With over 20 years of experience as a data and AI strategy expert, James presented a notable prediction about the growth rate of agentic commerce (a commerce model where AI agents discover, compare, and complete purchases on behalf of consumers). His core argument is clear: while e-commerce took over 20 years to reach 16% of global retail sales, agentic commerce will "reach 10% in 3-5 years."

Background and Industry Trends

The evidence that this prediction is not mere optimism lies in the massive user bases already built. OpenAI's ChatGPT has 800 million weekly active users, and Google AI has 1.5 billion monthly active users. Unlike the era when e-commerce launched, 5.5 billion people are already online, and agentic commerce doesn't need to "build an audience from zero."

Morgan Stanley's December 2025 report estimates AI agent-mediated purchases will account for $190-385 billion (10-20% market share) of U.S. e-commerce sales by 2030. McKinsey projects even larger numbers, forecasting $3-5 trillion in new business opportunities globally.

Consumer behavior change has already begun. According to Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey, approximately 23% of U.S. consumers have purchased products through AI in the past month. IBM Institute for Business Value's January 2026 survey reports that 45% of consumers use AI in at least part of their purchasing process.

The "Three Protocols" Being Built by OpenAI, Shopify, and Google

What's enabling the rapid expansion of agentic commerce is the standard protocols being developed by platform companies. Centered on the Shopify-OpenAI partnership highlighted in Fortune's article, three major initiatives are currently underway.

OpenAI's Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) was announced in September 2025 alongside ChatGPT's "Instant Checkout" feature. An open standard co-developed with Stripe, it standardizes three-way transactions between AI agents, consumers, and merchants. Starting with U.S. Etsy sellers, it's rolling out to over 1 million Shopify merchants including Glossier, SKIMS, Spanx, and Vuori.

Shopify and Google's Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) is another open standard announced by Google at the January 2026 NRF conference. Co-developed with Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, Target, and Walmart, over 20 companies including Adyen, Mastercard, Visa, and Stripe have joined. It enables direct checkout within Google Search's AI mode and the Gemini app.

Shopify's Agentic Storefronts allows merchants to deploy products to multiple AI platforms like ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, and Google AI Mode with a single setup. Furthermore, the "Agentic plan" enables even brands without Shopify online stores to sell through AI channels.

As James points out, the essence of this movement is that "Shopify is bringing AI commerce capabilities to every small business." For Fortune 500 major retailers, the situation where mid-sized companies can instantly support AI sales through Shopify creates strong pressure on their own development speed.

"AI Exhaust" Is the Real Gold — Strategic Advantage of Early Entry

The most insightful point in Fortune's article is James's statement that "AI exhaust is the real gold." Data generated from AI agent transactions—what drives sales, what doesn't, what questions consumers ask—is information that couldn't be obtained through traditional means.

This data is important for three reasons. First, it directly contributes to optimizing product recommendation algorithms. Second, it enables refinement of promotion strategies. Third, it can be used to improve returns handling and customer support processes. As Microsoft's industry blog notes, "the feedback loop strengthens with every conversation," and early movers enjoy the compound effect of learning cycles.

James also references the "winner-take-all" structure of digital markets. The question "Who's second after Amazon? It's hard to name" suggests the same structure may be replicated in agentic commerce. Once you lose the "default answer" position that AI agents recommend for questions in a particular category, it's extremely difficult to regain.

Impact and Actions for E-Commerce Businesses

Shopify's Q4 2025 earnings scheduled this week is attracting attention as the first opportunity to read early signals of agentic commerce. As of Q3 2025, AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores had increased 7x, and orders via AI search had surged 11x. Even if direct impact on earnings numbers is limited, James notes it's "disproportionately important for the future value of the business."

Actions e-commerce businesses should take now are clear. First, optimize product data for AI platforms. Shopify merchants should configure "Agentic Storefronts," while custom e-commerce operators should prioritize API support for UCP or ACP.

Next, build early data collection and learning cycles. As James warns, "waiting 2-3 years to enter means starting from generation zero," putting latecomers at a disadvantage chasing the learning accumulated by early movers.

Additionally, distributed deployment across multiple AI platforms is important. Different optimization is required for each AI engine—ChatGPT, Google AI Mode, Microsoft Copilot, etc. Shopify's "Agentic Storefronts" is designed to unify this multi-platform support, making it a strong option for small and medium businesses.

Summary

James's prediction in Fortune reveals the reality that agentic commerce has entered the stage of "not whether it's coming, but how fast." The lesson that "digital markets are harsh on latecomers," which e-commerce history proved over 20 years, may be repeated in accelerated form in the AI commerce era.

This week's Shopify earnings will be an event the entire industry watches as "real data from the first quarter" of agentic commerce. Even if direct impact on sales is limited, the growth rate of AI-driven traffic and orders, and the narrative around merchant adoption, will significantly influence future investment decisions and business strategies. Fortune's message in this article titled "fastest learners win, not biggest retailers" presents e-commerce businesses with the urgency to act.