US Retail Market to Reach $6.2 Trillion by 2030: Forrester Forecast Reveals In-Store Dominance and Winning Strategies for E-Commerce

Forrester's Latest Forecast: US Retail to Grow $1 Trillion in Five Years

US retail to hit $6.2 trn as in-store sales stay dominant: Forrester

Forrester forecasts US retail sales to reach $6.2 trillion by 2030, with in-store sales remaining dominant

According to Forrester's "US Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2025 To 2030", US retail sales (excluding automotive and gasoline) are projected to reach $6.2 trillion by 2030, up from $5.2 trillion in 2025. Notably, in-store sales are forecast to still account for 71% of total retail by 2030, maintaining a $4.4 trillion scale. Meanwhile, e-commerce sales are expected to grow to $1.8 trillion, representing 29% of total retail.

Background and Industry Trends

Behind this forecast lies the resilience of the US economy. Despite rising uncertainty around tariff policies in early 2025, consumer demand remained robust. Forrester attributes this growth to stable inflation rates and interest rates, historically low unemployment, and wage growth outpacing inflation.

However, consumption patterns show a divide along income lines. Research from Bank of America and the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston indicates that retail growth is being driven by higher-income households benefiting from stock market gains and rising home equity, while lower-income households are concentrating spending on essentials.

Moody's analysis forecasts real consumer spending growth to decelerate to approximately 1.5% in 2026, suggesting caution is warranted in the near term.

Why In-Store Retains 71% Share and What Drives E-Commerce Growth

Why does in-store retail remain strong? Forrester identifies five factors sustaining in-store dominance: the ability to touch and feel products, instant gratification, real-world product comparison, social interaction, and personalized customer service.

Forrester's "Priorities Survey, 2025" revealed that all top five technology investment priorities for retailers relate to enhancing the in-store experience. The top priority is "empowering store associates to deliver better customer service," followed by "improving customer self-service solutions." Additionally, enhancing omnichannel capabilities for inventory visibility and assortment expansion, as well as shrinkage prevention, are among the key initiatives.

Three factors are driving e-commerce growth. First, demographic shifts as Gen Z enters the workforce. The growing purchasing power of digital-native consumers is boosting the e-commerce market. Second, logistics evolution led by Amazon and Walmart is enabling faster and more reliable delivery. Third, technology innovation such as agentic commerce.

However, consumer adoption of agentic commerce is still in its early stages. According to Forrester's data, the percentage of US consumers using AI answer engines for product searches barely moved from 18% to 19% between February and October 2025. Only 8% of US adults have used OpenAI's Instant Checkout, and 54% express reluctance to share personal information with AI tools.

Impact on E-Commerce Businesses and Practical Applications

This forecast points to three actions e-commerce businesses should take.

1. Strengthen omnichannel strategy. With in-store retail maintaining 71% share, "e-commerce only" captures just 30% of the market. As noted in NRF's 2026 predictions, the boundary between online and in-store is increasingly blurring. Cross-channel customer experience design, including BOPIS (Buy Online, Pick Up In-Store) and showrooming support, is essential.

2. Prepare for agentic commerce. While building consumer trust takes time, Forrester forecasts that Amazon and Walmart will expand market share through AI and machine learning investment over the next five years. Small and mid-sized e-commerce businesses should also begin structuring product data and building AI agent-compatible APIs now. Forrester predicts that one in four shoppers will use retail chatbots in 2026.

3. Leverage curated marketplaces. Major retailers such as Best Buy, Lowe's, and Ulta Beauty are expanding curated marketplaces. Beyond their own e-commerce sites, listing on these platforms aligns with retail media advertising growth opportunities and is worth considering as a new sales channel.

Conclusion

Forrester's forecast rejects the simplistic view that "stores are unnecessary in the e-commerce era." Even in 2030, 70% of retail will take place in stores, and while e-commerce will steadily grow, it will represent 29% of the total. The essential question for e-commerce businesses is not "online or offline" but "how to deliver value to customers across channels." Building a comprehensive strategy that includes in-store integration while advancing readiness for new technologies like agentic commerce and AI will be the critical inflection point determining growth over the next five years.