Experian Warns Agentic Commerce Fraud Is the Biggest Threat of 2026

Key Takeaways

Experian releases its 2026 fraud predictions, with AI agent fraud surpassing human error as a leading threat for the first time in history
Distinguishing legitimate shopping agents from malicious bots becomes increasingly difficult, escalating "machine-to-machine mayhem"
E-commerce businesses must urgently build multi-layered AI-driven fraud prevention and agent authentication systems

A Historic Turning Point: AI Agents Surpass Human Error as Fraud Cause

Experian Raises Concerns Over Emerging Agentic Commerce Fraud

Experian releases its 2026 fraud prediction report, identifying agentic commerce fraud as the biggest threat

On January 13, 2026, credit bureau giant Experian released its annual fraud prediction report, "Future of Fraud Forecast". The report warns that for the first time in internet history, agentic AI has reached a tipping point where it surpasses human error as the primary cause of data breaches and financial fraud.

Experian identifies "Machine-to-Machine Mayhem" as the biggest threat to businesses in 2026. This refers to a situation where legitimate AI agents shopping on behalf of consumers coexist with malicious bots designed for fraud. According to Fortune, consumers lost over $12.5 billion to fraud in 2024, and Experian's data shows that nearly 60% of businesses reported increased fraud losses from 2024 to 2025.

Background and Industry Trends

The rapid adoption of agentic commerce underlies this problem. OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Perplexity, and others have successively released e-commerce agents, allowing consumers to have AI agents find the best products and prices instead of accessing Amazon or Walmart directly, making purchases without leaving the chatbot interface.

McKinsey predicts that agentic commerce could generate $1 trillion in revenue in the U.S. retail market by 2030. Additionally, Morgan Stanley forecasts that by 2030, about half of U.S. shoppers will use AI agents, leading to $115 billion in increased e-commerce spending.

However, this rapidly growing market casts a significant shadow. The simple defense of "it's a bot, so block it" no longer works. Experian expert Kathleen Peters points out, "Now you have to determine whether it's a good bot or a malicious bot."

Three Major Fraud Threats

Experian's report identifies five fraud trends that will most impact businesses and consumers in 2026. Here we examine three that are directly related to agentic commerce.

1. Machine-to-Machine Mayhem (Top Threat)

When AI agents initiate transactions on behalf of consumers, ownership and liability become unclear. Retailers need mechanisms to verify:

Whether the consumer has granted permission to the agent
Whether the agent is operating faithfully to the consumer's intent
Whether the agent has purchasing authority rather than just browsing
Whether there is an actual consumer behind the bot, or another cybercriminal

Peters states, "Retailers face the challenge of how to manage AI bots after consumers grant them permission to shop."

2. Deepfake Fraud (Second-Ranked Threat)

Deepfake fraud is positioned as the second-ranked threat for 2026. According to research by fraud detection company Pindrop, 3 out of 10 retail fraud cases are now AI-generated, with some major chains reporting over 1,000 AI bot calls per day.

According to cybersecurity firm DeepStrike, the number of deepfakes online surged from approximately 500,000 in 2023 to about 8 million in 2025. Criminals use AI tools to generate ads, landing pages, and fake sites mimicking brands, combined with deepfake influencer endorsements.

3. Smart Home Devices as Entry Points

Virtual assistants, smart locks, security systems, smart appliances, and upcoming humanoid robots could be exploited by malicious actors for accessing personal data, monitoring home activities, and controlling physical access points.

Amazon vs Perplexity: Industry Division

Tensions around agentic commerce have already created conflicts within the industry. In November 2025, Amazon sent a cease-and-desist letter to Perplexity AI over its shopping agent "Comet" and filed a lawsuit. Amazon accuses Perplexity of computer fraud, claiming they violated terms of service by not disclosing that Comet acts as a proxy for actual humans.

Perplexity countered that this was "bullying tactics", stating, "What if a store said 'you can only hire personal shoppers who work for the store'? That's not a personal shopper, that's a sales associate."

Interestingly, CEO Andy Jassy is recruiting specialists in "agentic commerce", suggesting a strategic shift at Amazon. Amazon is also testing its own shopping chatbot "Rufus" and an agent called "Buy For Me" that can purchase products directly from other sites.

Implications and Action Items for E-Commerce Businesses

Experian urges organizations to adopt multi-layered, AI-driven fraud prevention strategies. Javelin Strategy & Research expert Tracy Goldberg emphasizes, "Consumers are always going to be the most vulnerable link," advocating for enhanced security measures including firewalls, VPNs, and advanced email filtering.

Here are the actions e-commerce businesses should take immediately:

Short-Term Measures (Implement Now)

Advanced bot detection systems: Transition from "block all bots" to distinguishing "good bots vs. bad bots"
Enhanced multi-factor authentication: Introduce agent authentication mechanisms at purchase
Employee training: Conduct training on identifying deepfake fraud

Medium to Long-Term Measures (Establish Within 2026)

Agent authentication protocol establishment: Systems for consumer permission, intent fidelity, purchasing authority, and identity verification
AI-driven fraud detection: Introduction of anomaly pattern detection systems using machine learning
Industry standards readiness: Prepare for rapid response when agentic commerce authentication standards are established

A survey finding that 72% of business leaders consider AI fraud and deepfakes the biggest operational challenge of 2026 underscores the urgency of this issue.

Conclusion

Experian's 2026 fraud predictions highlight the reality that agentic commerce is fundamentally changing the landscape of financial fraud. The end of the "phishing era" and the arrival of the "machine-to-machine mayhem" era demand new defensive strategies from e-commerce businesses.

While the market is predicted to grow to $1 trillion, fraud losses are also surging. A multi-layered security approach is essential, including technology to distinguish legitimate AI agents from malicious bots, agent authentication and permission management, and deepfake detection.

Even major players like Amazon are wavering on whether to block or embrace agents. E-commerce businesses need to start preparing now to reap the benefits of this technological revolution while protecting consumers and themselves.