The AI Commerce Three-Way Battle: Google, Amazon, and OpenAI Clash Over the Next-Gen E-Commerce Market

Key Takeaways

Google, Amazon, and OpenAI are competing with different approaches in the AI commerce market
McKinsey predicts a $3-5 trillion global market opportunity by 2030
E-commerce businesses need to prepare for multi-protocol support

The Battle for AI Commerce Dominance Heats Up

Why Google, Amazon and OpenAI Are on a Collision Course Over AI Commerce

Google, Amazon, and OpenAI compete in the AI commerce market

In January 2026, three tech giants have entered full-scale competition over AI-powered shopping experiences. Google, Amazon, and OpenAI are each advancing into the AI commerce market with different approaches. According to McKinsey's report, a $3-5 trillion global market opportunity is projected by 2030.

This market size is said to have an impact comparable to the web and mobile revolutions, making it an unavoidable wave of transformation for e-commerce businesses.

Background and Industry Trends

"Agentic commerce" refers to a model where AI agents autonomously search for products, compare them, negotiate, and complete purchases on behalf of consumers. In traditional e-commerce, consumers had to visit multiple sites themselves to compare products, add items to cart, and complete payment.

In agentic commerce, these discrete steps of "search → browse → compare → purchase" transform into an "intent-driven seamless experience" powered by AI. Consumers simply give instructions like "find a waterproof tent for weekend camping under $300," and the AI agent finds the optimal product and completes the purchase.

According to Adobe's data, traffic from generative AI browsers and chat services to US retail sites increased by 4,700% year-over-year as of July 2025. More than half of consumers are expected to use AI assistants for shopping by the end of 2025, indicating rapid market expansion.

Three Different Strategies—Open vs. Closed

Google: Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP)

On January 11, 2026, Google announced the "Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP)" at the NRF (National Retail Federation) annual conference. UCP is an open standard covering the entire shopping journey from product discovery to purchase and post-purchase support.

UCP's distinguishing feature is cross-industry collaboration. It was co-developed with Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, Target, and Walmart, with over 20 companies including Adyen, American Express, Best Buy, Mastercard, Stripe, Visa, and Zalando expressing support.

Technically, it maintains compatibility with existing protocols like Agent2Agent (A2A), Agent Payments Protocol (AP2), and Model Context Protocol (MCP), functioning as a "common language" that allows any AI agent to conduct commerce transactions uniformly. UCP is released as an open-source project, and you can check the specifications and participate in development on GitHub.

OpenAI: Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) and Instant Checkout

In September 2025, OpenAI announced the "Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP)" in partnership with Stripe. ACP is an open standard that enables the "Instant Checkout" feature for purchasing products directly within ChatGPT.

According to Stripe's official blog, ACP is open-sourced under the Apache 2.0 license and can integrate with any AI agent or payment processor. Merchants maintain customer relationships as the "merchant of record" and retain control over which products to sell and how.

Currently, ChatGPT Plus, Pro, and Free users in the US can purchase Etsy products directly within chat, with over 1 million Shopify merchants including Glossier, SKIMS, Spanx, and Vuori scheduled to follow. Merchants already using Stripe can enable agentic payments with just one line of code.

Salesforce has also announced ACP support, and commercetools has joined as a launch partner.

Amazon: Shop Direct and Buy for Me

In February 2025, Amazon announced "Shop Direct" and "Buy for Me". Shop Direct allows browsing products from brand sites other than Amazon on the Amazon platform. Buy for Me is a feature where an AI agent purchases products from external sites on behalf of consumers using payment information and shipping addresses registered with Amazon.

According to CNBC reports, Buy for Me-compatible products have expanded from 65,000 at launch to over 500,000, with Amazon projecting over $10 billion in annual sales.

However, this approach has controversial aspects. Some businesses are protesting that their products are being sold on Amazon without permission. Modern Retail reports quote businesses saying they've "unknowingly become Amazon's dropshipper."

Furthermore, Amazon blocks external AI agents from accessing its own site and has sued Perplexity, drawing criticism for double standards.

Impact on E-Commerce Businesses and Practical Applications

Short-term Actions (Within 2026)

1. Consider ACP Adoption

Businesses using Stripe can support direct purchases from ChatGPT with minimal code changes. Early adoption may secure first-mover advantage for those operating in the US market.

2. Review UCP Specifications

Google's UCP is open-sourced, allowing you to evaluate integration possibilities with your own systems. Businesses using Shopify or Stripe may have lower adoption costs.

3. Decide on Amazon Buy for Me Response

Check if your products are displayed on Amazon, and if you don't want to participate, you can apply for opt-out at branddirect@amazon.com. Alternatively, utilizing it as a new customer acquisition channel is also an option.

Medium to Long-term Strategy (2027 and Beyond)

In the agentic commerce era, "which AI agent selects your products" becomes important. This requires the following responses:

Structured Data Preparation: Optimize schema markup and feed information so AI agents can accurately understand product information
Multi-protocol Support: Keep both UCP and ACP support in view to avoid dependence on specific platforms
Customer Relationship Maintenance: Prioritize protocols (like ACP) that allow you to maintain merchant of record status even through AI agents

Summary

The three-way battle for the AI commerce market by Google, Amazon, and OpenAI is set to bring major transformation to the e-commerce industry. Google's UCP aims for open industry standards, OpenAI's ACP pursues practicality through payment infrastructure integration, and Amazon is advancing its own route leveraging its existing customer base.

The $3-5 trillion market predicted by McKinsey is comparable in scale to the web and mobile revolutions. For e-commerce businesses, the decision of which protocols to support will be a crucial business decision that determines future competitiveness.

We recommend starting by understanding the current state of your e-commerce system and calculating the adoption costs and expected benefits for each protocol.